Downside risks to economic outlook in EU have increased - forecast

BRUSSELS, Nov 15 (KUNA) -- Uncertainty and downside risks to the economic outlook in the European Union have increased in recent months amid Russia's protracted war against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East.

Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economy, gives a press conference on Autiumn 2023 Economic Forecast.
So far, the latter's impact on energy markets has been contained, but there is a risk of disruptions to energy supplies that could potentially have a significant impact on energy prices, global output and the overall price level, said the European Commission in its Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast presented today.
Economic developments in the EU's major trading partners, especially China, could also pose risks, it said.
The forecast said that while the European economy has lost momentum this year against the background of a high cost of living, weak external demand and monetary tightening, economic activity is expected to gradually recover going forward.
In 2024, EU GDP growth is forecast to improve to 1.3 percent. This is still a downward revision of 0.1 percentage points. from the summer. In the euro area, GDP growth is projected to be slightly lower, at 1.2 percent.
Presenting the forecast in a press conference, Paolo Gentiloni, EU Commissioner for Economy said "overall, we project GDP growth in 2023 at 0.6 percent in both the EU and the euro area. Ten Member States will however have negative growth this year.
"The reaction of oil and gas prices, both spot and futures, has remained overall muted despite the situation in the Middle-East," he said.
The gas futures price curve remains broadly in line with the assumptions underpinning the Summer Forecast, with gas prices falling gradually towards 45 euro (USD 49)/MWh by the end of 2025.
Oil price futures over the forecast horizon have moved slightly higher (around five percent) than assumed in summer, he added. (end) nk.bs.